In 2023, the price return for the MSCI World Index was 21.8%, the best performance since 2019.

The two charts below show the annual price returns for the MSCI World Index in US dollars from 1988. I split the 36 years into two 18-year period charts for clarity. Bars on the right show positive returns and bars to the left show negative returns.

Over the whole period, the Index has generated positive returns in 26 years out of 36 or 72% of the time. During this period, the Index showed the best performance or highest positive return in 2003 (not surprisingly since it was recovering from the 2000-2002 bear market) and the worst performance or highest negative return in 2008. If we categorize the positive return numbers further, we can see that in six out of 26 years we get a return under 10%. Nine times the return is between 10% and 20%, ten times it is between 20% and 30% and there is one year where the positive return is 30% or more.

Strings of gains are very important. We have three strings of two-year gains (1988-1989, 2009-2010 and 2016-2017), two strings of three-year gains (2012-2014 and 2019-2021), one string of five-year gains (2003-2007) and one string of seven-year gains (1993-1999). There is only one period where we get a loss string and that is during the severe bear market from 2000 to 2002 (three years).  

The third chart shows the annual price returns in the context of the mean and the standard deviations. We have 22 years with above-average (blue line) returns and three years where the returns are more than one standard deviation above the mean. However, we have six years where the negative returns are more than one standard deviation below the mean, one of them (2008) is close to three standard deviations below the mean (outlier).